Stock analytics company Trefis has revised their Bitcoin year-end price forecast, lowering it from $15000 to $12500, a blog post from June 5 shows.
Trefis’ BTC forecast analytics is based on the economic fundamentals of supply and demand, where demand is the number of users and the number of transactions, and supply is the number of bitcoins available. In the blog post, Trefis pointed out significant recent losses in total transaction volumes across crypto exchanges and attributed a surplus in supply and subsequent drop in price to Mt. Gox trustees dumping BTC onto exchanges this spring.
The Blog goes on to say:
“Adjusting our forecast for transaction volumes… leads to a year-end price target of around $12,500 – down from our earlier estimate of $15,000.”
Trefis noted that while bitcoin has seen gains over the last few days of May, it still experienced a steep decline, dropping to monthly lows after almost hitting the $10000 mark.
Recently, a Dutch government study noted the crypto market’s low capitalization. The study found that low trading volumes plus minimal institutional exposure made cryptocurrencies a low risk to the country’s financial stability.
Earlier in May, Spencer Bogart argued that Bitcoin will trade at above $10000 by the end of the year, also contending that most other altcoins are quite possibly “overvalued” and “have significant headwind.”
Fundstrat’s Thomas Lee is still bullish on Bitcoin, however, as he still expects the cryptocurrency to reach as high as $25000 by the end of this year.